The incidence, characteristics, risk factors for, and impact of chronic graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) were evaluated in a consecutive series of 116 evaluable HLA-identical blood stem cell transplant recipients. Minimum follow-up was 18 months. Limited chronic GVHD occurred in 6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0%-13%), and clinical extensive chronic GVHD in 71% (95% CI, 61%-80%). The cumulative incidence was 57% (95% CI, 48%-66%). In univariate analyses, GVHD prophylaxis other than tacrolimus and methotrexate, prior grades 2 to 4 acute GVHD, use of corticosteroids on day 100, and total nucleated cell dose were significant risk factors for clinical extensive chronic GVHD. On multivariate analysis, GVHD prophylaxis with tacrolimus and methotrexate was associated with a reduced risk of chronic GVHD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.35; P =.001), whereas the risk was increased with prior acute GVHD (HR, 1.67; P =.046). When adjusted for disease status at the time of transplantation, high-risk chronic GVHD had an adverse impact on overall mortality (HR, 6.6; P <.001) and treatment failure (HR, 5.2; P <.001) at 18 months. It was concluded that there is a substantial rate of chronic GVHD after HLA-identical allogeneic blood stem cell transplantation, that clinical factors may alter the risk of chronic GVHD, and that high-risk chronic GVHD adversely affects outcome.
