Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s. Academic Article uri icon

Overview

abstract

  • OBJECTIVES: We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. METHODS: We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). RESULTS: Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.

publication date

  • April 15, 2010

Research

keywords

  • Homicide
  • Social Change
  • Wounds, Gunshot

Identity

PubMed Central ID

  • PMC2866619

Scopus Document Identifier

  • 77952280580

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.2105/AJPH.2008.158238

PubMed ID

  • 20395590

Additional Document Info

volume

  • 100

issue

  • 6