Performance of the Pooled Cohort atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score in hepatitis C virus-infected persons.

Overview

abstract

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommended Pooled Cohort atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk equation for estimation of 10-year CVD risk has not been validated in HCV-infected populations. We examined the performance of the ASCVD risk score in HCV-infected persons, using the national Electronically Retrieved Cohort of HCV Infected Veterans to derive a cohort of HCV-infected and uninfected subjects without baseline ASCVD, hepatitis B, or HIV infection, and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level<190 mg/dL. Performance of the ASCVD risk equation was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression, C-statistics and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The cohort included 70 490 HCV-infected and 97 766 HCV-uninfected men with mean age of 55 years, 56% White and 29% Black. Incident CVD event rates were similar between the two groups (13.2 and 13.4 events/1000 person-years), with a higher incidence of coronary heart disease events in the HCV-uninfected group and of stroke events in the HCV-infected group. Adjusting for ASCVD risk score, HCV infection was associated with higher risk for an ASCVD event in the subgroup with baseline ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (HR: 1.19, P<.0001). C-statistics were poor in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups (0.60 and 0.61, respectively). By Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the ASCVD risk equation overestimated risk amongst lower risk patients and underestimated risk amongst higher risk patients in both the HCV-infected and uninfected groups. Further investigation is needed to determine whether a modified equation to accurately predict ASCVD risk in HCV-infected persons is warranted.