Ophthalmic and clinical factors that predict four-year development and worsening of diabetic retinopathy in type 1 diabetes.

Overview

AIMS: To investigate the role of ophthalmic imaging markers - namely retinal thickness measures and corneal nerve morphology - in predicting four-year development and worsening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in type 1 diabetes (T1DM). METHODS: 126 eyes of 126 participants with T1DM were examined at baseline and after four years. Diabetic retinopathy (DR) was graded using the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study scale. HbA_1c, nephropathy, neuropathy, cardiovascular factors, and retinal thickness using optical coherence tomography (OCT) and corneal nerve fiber length (CNFL) using corneal confocal microscopy at baseline were assessed by univariate and step-wise multiple logistic regression, and their diagnostic capabilities for single and combined measures. RESULTS: Four-year development of DR was 19% (13 of 68 without DR at baseline). Worsening of DR was seen in 43% (25 of 58 with DR at baseline). When adjusted for potential confounders, a lower CNFL (AUC=0.637, p=0.040, 64% sensitivity and 64% specificity at 14.9mm/mm² cut-off), higher triglycerides (AUC=0.669, p=0.012, 64% sensitivity, 62% specificity at 0.85mmol/L) and an elevated vibration threshold (AUC=0.708, p=0.002, 96% sensitivity, 40% specificity at 3.55Hz) were significant predictors for four-year worsening of DR. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced CNFL, elevated vibration perception threshold and higher triglycerides can predict future worsening of DR.