e3SIM: Epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulation framework for genomic epidemiology.
Academic Article
Overview
abstract
Infectious disease dynamics result from the complex interplay of epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary (epi-eco-evo) processes. Accurately modelling these coupled processes is crucial for understanding pathogen spread and informing public health strategies. However, existing genomic epidemiology simulators typically assume conditional independence among these processes: generating transmission trees independently of pathogen evolution, and then superimposing neutral mutations onto fixed genealogies without ecological feedback. This simplification fails to capture how pathogen evolution dynamically reshapes epidemic trajectories.We introduce e3SIM, an open-source, agent-based, forward-time simulator for macOS and Linux that explicitly integrates pathogen transmission dynamics, molecular evolution and environmental factors. e3SIM incorporates configurable compartmental models, user-defined host contact networks, customizable pathogen genetic architectures and optional eco-evolutionary features (e.g. within-host dynamics, multi-strain infections). This integration enables realistic modelling of pathogen spread and evolution. Key features include modularity, flexible epidemiological and population-genetic modelling, time-varying environmental factors and a user-friendly graphical interface.We demonstrated e3SIM's capabilities by simulating SARS-CoV-2 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreaks. e3SIM captured the emergence and spread of drug-resistant variants under sequential treatments, highlighting how pathogen evolution and environmental variations dynamically reshape epidemic trajectories. We also illustrated how interactions between pathogen transmissibility and host population structures, particularly those involving socially active "superspreaders", strongly influence pathogen lineage expansion and transmission clusters. Runtime profiling demonstrated computational efficiency and scalability.e3SIM provides a powerful tool for simulating infectious disease dynamics through the explicit integration of epi-eco-evo processes, substantially enhancing realism and predictive accuracy in genomic epidemiology. Its modular, user-friendly design supports broad applications across diverse host-pathogen systems, enabling rigorous exploration of scenarios critical to public health.
