Is the worst of the COVID-19 global pandemic yet to come? Application of financial mathematics as candidate predictive tools.

Overview

The Elliott Wave principle is a time-honored, oft-used method for predicting variations in the financial markets. It is based on the notion that human emotions drive financial decisions. In the fight against the COVID-19 global pandemic, human emotions are similarly decisive, for instance in that they determine one's willingness to be vaccinated, and/or to follow preventive measures including the personal wearing of masks, the application of social distancing protocols, and frequent handwashing. On this basis, we postulated that the Elliott Wave Principle may similarly be used to predict the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrated that this method reproduces the data pattern for various countries and the world (daily new cases). Potential scenarios were then extrapolated, from the best-case corresponding to a rapid, full vaccination of the population, to the utterly disastrous case of slow vaccination, and poor adherence to preventive protocols.