Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.

Overview

INTRODUCTION: Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection is a global health challenge. New approaches are needed to control CT disease burden. METHODS: An age-structured deterministic mathematical model calibrated to nationally representative population-based data was developed to investigate the impact of CT vaccination on the population of the USA if a vaccine becomes available. The model's parameters were chosen based on current knowledge from the literature on CT's natural history and epidemiology. The model's calibration used age-specific CT prevalence data sourced from the biannual rounds of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The reported data are based on the outcomes generated by the model's simulations. RESULTS: V CONCLUSION: A moderately efficacious CT vaccine can significantly reduce CT disease burden. Targeting specific populations can maximise cost-effectiveness. Additional potential 'breakthrough' effects of the vaccine on infectiousness and duration of infection could greatly increase its impact. CT vaccine development and implementation should be a public health priority.